← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
9
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
53
30-13-10
overall winrate
66.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.4%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
59.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1327
· median 1294
· range 1124–1730
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 66.6% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 13 | 7-4-2 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 58.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 76.2% | +15.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Veiling Breeze, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Beseech the Winds, Forest Cake, Sunblessed Gazelle.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Winds of Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sunblessed Gazelle
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Sighing Crownwing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vestal Priestess | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |